THIS IS NOT
A NEITHER A PRESS RELEASE, NOR A PARTY-POLITICAL COMMENT
I was
recently asked to comment on the Russian PMC Wagner’s role and their current lack
of success in Mozambique.
I do not usually
comment on the work of other PMCs, but as some in the media—very falsely and stupidly—alluded
and/or claimed I was
part of Wagner’s creation, I feel I ought to voice my opinion. Others in the media,
again very falsely, claimed that STTEP had submitted a proposal to the Mozambique
government, but that it had been rejected—especially as no
such proposal was ever submitted.
It is
sometimes very difficult to counter the media’s constant lying with reference
to EO/STTEP as people tend to believe the ‘creative journalism’ they read in
the media without any verification of the story. I have been down that road
before…
Equally
dim-witted is the assertion that EO/STTEP were/get paid in ‘resources’. (It is
very difficult to pay employees in barrels of oil, carats of diamonds, or
whatever other resources I/we supposedly get paid in). I suppose by padding their
stories with lies, some of these ‘journalists’ feel they are worthy of some journalistic
prize.
Back to
Wagner: It is a well-known fact that they are in Mozambique. It is also a well-known
fact that they have found themselves totally out of their depth. I recently
commented that arrogance and over confidence can result in disaster for those
who are unprepared for deployment in Africa. Africa does not take kindly to a Western
or Eastern doctrine, or such approaches to conflict as a template that can be
superimposed on the continent.
I also
commented that a lack of their understanding of the impact of the Operating Environment
(OE), the Area of Operations (AO), the terrain, the threat, the customs and traditions
of the local people in the AO, and so forth all indicate a definite lack of
preparation. As intelligence drives
strategy, and tactics is related to terrain, it is apparent they missed that
part as well.
However,
the mere fact that a Russian PMC is in Mozambique, is an indication that the Mozambique
armed forces need help, and that South Africa missed a golden opportunity to
project force by providing robust and effective support. Many African armies
have become victims of their own making. But that is another argument for
another day…
I certainly
do not applaud the fact that Wagner suffered casualties. Rightly or wrongly,
they are there to do a job—and if they
are successful, much of Sub-Saharan Africa may benefit from their success. If
they fail, the threat will simply be incentivised and gain additional support—and
that ought to be of grave concern to the Mozambique government, and many other
governments.
Am I pleased that Wagner
are in Mozambique? No, as I believe there are other PMCs way better qualified and
with a better track record than they have, but it was a decision taken by the Mozambique
government.
Perhaps desperate
times call for desperate measures…But ultimately, you get what you pay for.
