As Africa drags itself ever
closer to the abyss, one would think that governments would be paying a lot
more attention to strategic intelligence, and the current and developing strategic
threats, along with strategic forecasting. This sadly appears not to be the
case as it is evident that erroneous intelligence impacts greatly on current
thinking and strategies—especially when the initiative has been lost and the
tipping point is approaching.
If governments continue
to base their strategic predications on thumb-sucking, misinformed media articles
and ‘opinion pieces’, ill-informed advisors, and incorrect narrative-driven assumptions,
instead of verified and credible strategic intelligence, tragedy awaits them as
they place their national and vital interests at risk. The richer they are in resources,
the greater the risk and the subsequent looming tragedy.
The rise of armed
anti-government forces, radical religious terror groups, proxy forces, domestic
and transnational organised crime, planned regime-change actions, mass
perception shaping programmes via the mainstream media and so forth, is evident
that intelligence failures at the strategic level are increasing. The continued
lack of intelligence is costing—and will still cost—African governments dearly
in the future as they will be unable to prepare and posture themselves correctly
to meet the threats. Nor will they be able to develop a coherent strategic
intent as the threat and its intentions will be unknown…let alone safeguard
their interests.
The integrity and
survival of the state along with the longevity of government requires a
reliable, robust, and continuous strategic intelligence input. This is essential
to enable the development and adjustment of the National Strategy. The National
Strategy, in turn, must give the government direction and guidance on how it intends
to position itself on the national, regional, continental, and international
stages. It is also essential to give forewarning of real, potential and predicted
violent and non-violent threats against the state—and the obstacles it will
face along the way in countering the threats.
The National Security
Strategy is similarly guided by strategic intelligence and strategic forecasting
and/or predictions, and its impact is felt across all pillars of the state.
However, threats against the state are not only of a military or armed nature. They
include planned non-violent attacks such as economic sabotage, political
blackmail, coercive diplomacy, perception manipulation, international criminal
court threats, trade embargos, resource and state capture, and so forth. These
threats are diverse, multi-dimensional and very seldom, if ever, appear as a
singular threat. They develop over time and are never spontaneous.
Without strategic
intelligence, the state will have no pre-warning of the approaching threats—or
their intentions—that will attack it on numerous fronts. Nor will it
understand—or be likely to withstand—foreign-backed and sponsored regime change
actions through violent and non-violent means. These attacks all have only one
aim: the installation, by any and all means possible, of a government that will
be sympathetic to the regime change sponsors and that will surrender its
resources as a token of thanks.
Countries such as
Libya, Egypt, Tunisia, Nigeria, Central African Republic, S Sudan, DRC, Ivory
Coast, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, and Mali to name a few have all found themselves
under sustained attack without having had any home-grown intelligence pre-warning.
Despite several of the aforementioned countries being cautioned prior to the
attacks, they chose instead to be blind and discard the dangers in the
misguided belief that they may not be targeted or that the intelligence was
wrong. In some instances, they were advised by ‘allies’ that the intelligence
was false. Several other countries are also on the target list but are not currently
viewed as priorities—yet. However, in every case, the developing intentions
were and are—if anyone was or is willing to look—as clear as daylight, yet they
were and are seemingly unable to connect the dots.
Reliance on the media,
ill-intentioned ‘allies’, misinformed advisors, and public perceptions does not
constitute intelligence at any dimension or level. The misguided belief that
these sources will provide accurate and objective intelligence is a myth
governments should dispel with absolute haste as these sources are usually
coloured with disinformation. Instead, they must develop their own sources of
intelligence and take responsibility for their own intelligence collection
efforts and their intelligence failures.
Just because the
intelligence does not match their ethnic, financial, racial, religious, or
xenophobic narrative, it does not mean that it is wrong or false or even non-existent.
Unless African governments
realise the true value of strategic intelligence and critical role it plays in guiding
and shaping their national and security strategies and defending their national
and vital interests, they will continue to lead themselves—and their people—down
the path of self-destruction.