tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-955273524757178757.post5986307929172575008..comments2024-02-06T08:33:52.695+02:00Comments on Eeben Barlow's Military and Security Blog: THE UN DOES IT AGAIN...Eeben Barlow's Milsec Bloghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08942119485068301545noreply@blogger.comBlogger38125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-955273524757178757.post-38208341051701855272011-04-26T15:02:20.281+02:002011-04-26T15:02:20.281+02:00I must admit that I am surprised at the actions th...I must admit that I am surprised at the actions that have been undertaken Alan. For years, Ghadaffi has been assisting numerous “actors” in Africa but he has become probably the single largest patron of several governments in Africa. <br /><br />There is a good piece on http://www.isn.ethz.ch/isn/Current-Affairs/ISN-Insights/Detail?lng=en&id=128677&contextid734=128677&contextid735=128561&tabid=128561128677 about the current situation.<br /><br />I suspect that the West was too quite to jump into the fray. The air campaign, whilst delivering serious damage to the Libyan forces, can never succeed on its own. Plus, it has allowed the Libyan army to adapt to the threat of air strikes. Their TTPs now make it more difficult for the opposing forces. <br /><br />I wonder where the UN’s peacekeepers are? <br /><br />Take care out there where you are.<br /><br />Rgds,<br /><br />EebenEeben Barlow's Milsec Bloghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08942119485068301545noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-955273524757178757.post-45204914450637937182011-04-24T18:36:51.994+02:002011-04-24T18:36:51.994+02:00Eeben:
I've been watching development in Liby...Eeben:<br /><br />I've been watching development in Libya with interets in the hopes that the US would NOT get involved thus permitting 'RED on RED' scenario to achieve full maturity. Hopes now dashed (as I suspected they would be), I continue to watch, with interest Colonel Ghadaffi's Tactics Techniques and Procedures (TTP). With a predictably failed air campaign and now both French and English boots on the ground, he must certainly be reassured his TTP's are producing the desired results. Strange isn't it, the Taliban have little concern for the Afghan...."No Fly Zone" they just keep slugging it out. In response to John's question regarding US "foreign policy"... there is none.<br /><br />Regards, Al<br />In Afghanistan. Yet another foreign misadventure.Alanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02155000096802114856noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-955273524757178757.post-78922713426679485192011-04-16T13:50:23.430+02:002011-04-16T13:50:23.430+02:00This report in many ways confirms what I was told ...This report in many ways confirms what I was told Brad. <br /><br />It is indeed a shocking fact that what happened there was not a move towards to peaceful “democracy” but rather one that is implemented through the barrel of a gun. Despite utterances to the contrary, nothing will happen to those who committed the atrocities. <br /><br />I fear that this may be the tip of the iceberg but it was, after all, UN backed.<br /><br />Rgds,<br /><br />EebenEeben Barlow's Milsec Bloghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08942119485068301545noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-955273524757178757.post-21777600530346804482011-04-03T20:55:37.412+02:002011-04-03T20:55:37.412+02:00http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-12951990
H...http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-12951990<br /><br />Here is a look at waht we can expect at the hands of the "International Communities" chosen leader in Ivory Coast?Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14222265422927038567noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-955273524757178757.post-76166562566546414772011-03-30T16:15:59.550+02:002011-03-30T16:15:59.550+02:00Thank you for the link, Nilster.
I always have a ...Thank you for the link, Nilster.<br /><br />I always have a laugh at how EO is constantly brought into a story. Other companies are PMCs yet EO remains a “mercenary” company. Also, I find the comment that Saracen consists of “the remnants of Executive Outcomes” – it will be a good day when some journalists can get their facts correct. <br /><br />It is also ironic that Somalia claims to want help but then cancels a contract when it gets help. It makes me question their wisdom. I am no fan of Saracen (personal reasons not for discussion) but their help is better than what the Somalis are doing to help themselves. <br /><br />Rgds,<br /><br />EebenEeben Barlow's Milsec Bloghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08942119485068301545noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-955273524757178757.post-29437206890547463072011-03-30T16:01:07.534+02:002011-03-30T16:01:07.534+02:00Eeben, not sure if you're keeping tabs but int...Eeben, not sure if you're keeping tabs but interesting update on Erik Prince/ Blackwater and Saracen on NYT topics pages, link below<br /><br />http://topics.nytimes.com/top/news/business/companies/blackwater_usa/index.html?scp=16&sq=mark%20mazzetti%20eric%20schmitt&st=cseNilsterhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05731058417193447256noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-955273524757178757.post-68230160337104731402011-03-30T09:25:38.857+02:002011-03-30T09:25:38.857+02:00I am not too sure what will be achieved by the sup...I am not too sure what will be achieved by the support given to the anti-Ghadaffi forces Mike, especially now that it has been confirmed that there are Al Qaeda members in these forces. Of course, it is almost certain that eventually a regime change will occur but at what cost? <br /><br />Ghadaffi gave support to many acts of international terror but at that time, nothing was really done to curtail his support to these acts. Whereas I can (finally!) applaud the UN for actually making a decision and following through on it, I am still wondering where their peacekeepers are. I suspect that many lives will be lost before they finally show up.<br /><br />I think time will tell how effective this has all been but air power alone will not resolve the problem. As you point out, the collateral damage it causes may well result in something we did now wish to see in Libya in the first place. But I still suspect that these revolutions are all good news for extremists.<br /><br />I often wonder why other megalomaniacs in Africa are left alone to thrive on chaos while everyone sits by and watches. <br /><br />Rgds,<br /><br />EebenEeben Barlow's Milsec Bloghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08942119485068301545noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-955273524757178757.post-13916128562500050572011-03-29T10:09:15.066+02:002011-03-29T10:09:15.066+02:00whatrver happened to hearts and minds? it worked w...whatrver happened to hearts and minds? it worked well for many years. building allies in countries where foreign troops were deployed. i believe that the un and nato need to review their carpet bombing scorched earth approach to diplomacy that they currently employ as their standard operating procedure. you will make more friends and allies out of the local population if you arent screaming overhead and pounding the ground with smart bombs, controlled by stupid people. collaterral damage is inevitable and creates enemies out of potential friendlies. gadaffi is a megalomaniac and will never capitulate without spilling blood. lets hope that nato can live with massive loss of life caused ultimately by their bombing campaign. this chuck everything at them including the kitchen sink has worked so wonderfully in holiday spots like club afghanistan and iraq.those locals just looove the un and nato forces. sarcasm intended.<br />mike.mandyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11718694486163871137noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-955273524757178757.post-59469183766162103412011-03-28T15:56:10.117+02:002011-03-28T15:56:10.117+02:00You are never too late to respond to anything on m...You are never too late to respond to anything on my blog, Laki.<br /><br />You are quite correct but we need to realise that the MENA are not the only ones where these failures took place. <br /><br />You are also correct in that their systems were based on informers who reported what they thought their paymasters wanted to hear. Your comment that they were serving a ruler and not a country is likewise spot on. But, there are services outside of MENA who focus on MENA, yet the entire situation seems to have been misread despite numerous warning signs.<br /><br />My surprise lay in the fact that there have also been numerous foreign intelligence services training these people and one can only surmise why they were all caught with their pants down. Where did the fault lie – with the training or with the students? I suppose we will never know. <br /><br />Rgds,<br /><br />EebenEeben Barlow's Milsec Bloghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08942119485068301545noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-955273524757178757.post-6870010770023865062011-03-26T00:17:14.955+02:002011-03-26T00:17:14.955+02:00Hi Eeben,
might be late for your response in discu...Hi Eeben,<br />might be late for your response in discussion but anyhow i'm little puzzled about your surprise on intelligence systems MENA countries failing so badly.<br />Their intelligence systems doesn't matter how brutal were was based primarily for 30 and something years on creation of charade where serving a ruler and not a country was primary objective which gives you financial as well carrier benefits but surely not necessary intelligence skills.Systems like that can at the best create mediocre intelligence officers which would gradually and naturally evolve into liars about their own contribution in country's security.That would automatically strip of integrity and competence and much resourceful intelligence services then MENA countries pretend to be.<br />Your view on UN's role of in Siera Leone i think goes right to the point...<br /><br />My best regards.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13392697200277083711noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-955273524757178757.post-54833233230619581412011-03-20T18:14:02.623+02:002011-03-20T18:14:02.623+02:00I am sorry for the late response Jared, but I have...I am sorry for the late response Jared, but I have been unable to respond until now. I know it is a poor excuse but it is the only one I have.<br /><br />What we are now witnessing is a foreign action brought about by calls that began with the Arab League. Yes, it is a Catch-22 situation but does the West really wish to go in with land forces? I suspect that the attacks will be long-range missile attacks coordinated with air strikes. However, there will be civilian casualties and we all know what happens then. I am sure that there will be a lot of West-bashing before this is over. <br /><br />The nature of the beast is “do something and suffer the consequences of your actions”. Do nothing and likewise suffer.<br /><br />What could a PMC do? First of all, there was a massive intelligence failure across the region. Governments were caught off-guard and were unable to react. When they did react, it was with violence as the argument was that an armed protestor is not a peaceful protestor. A PMC that goes in blind will remain blind and not make the impression they wish to make.<br /><br />Ivory Coast has now been buried – as Libya will be – and no PMC can change that. Helping a legitimate government is one thing – helping a legitimate government that is deploying armed force to quell protests is another. Given the resolutions passed on Ivory Coast and Libya, I think it would be foolish to enter those areas now in support of their current and about-to-be deposed governments. <br /><br />Had these countries witnessed an attempt to overthrown them by means of violent action (insurgencies, foreign attacks, etc), then a PMC could have considered going to their aid as no one else would.<br /><br />I don’t think these are anti-African as much as they are pro-interest based. <br /><br />Rgds,<br /><br />EebenEeben Barlow's Milsec Bloghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08942119485068301545noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-955273524757178757.post-3137029298122280372011-03-20T18:07:57.074+02:002011-03-20T18:07:57.074+02:00I don’t think it is the CIA, michael b.
One need...I don’t think it is the CIA, michael b. <br /><br />One needs to wonder if this new wave of consciousness is genuine or is it inspired by forces that wish to suck the West into another problem? I suppose only time will tell but I somehow think that we are opening ourselves up for problems that we may not need. <br /><br />I have to wonder where the Arab League is? They asked the West to intervene – why didn’t they intervene? Why was the intelligence failure across the MENA so massive?<br /><br />It will be interesting to see how the UN peacekeepers handle this one, especially as it was the UN that called for action such as we are now seeing. <br /><br />Rgds,<br /><br />EebenEeben Barlow's Milsec Bloghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08942119485068301545noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-955273524757178757.post-82965468505554146382011-03-20T18:06:38.648+02:002011-03-20T18:06:38.648+02:00I suppose we are also to blame John as we simply a...I suppose we are also to blame John as we simply accept, without questioning, that they are doing good all of the time. <br /><br />I am not an activist but I believe that there are times when one should voice an opinion about something. As this organisation went all out to lie and discredit EO/myself, using its massive propaganda machinery, I felt it only correct to point out that they lied – I suspect to hide their own inadequacies. <br /><br />I have had several journalists approaching me as “students” – trying to get me to give them something to write about. And then they actually have the gall to talk about deception!<br /><br />I suppose however that when a 20-something year old in the media has the power to influence, some of them exploit it without even considering the implications of their deception. Then they act as if they know and understand strategy...<br /><br />Rgds,<br /><br />EebenEeben Barlow's Milsec Bloghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08942119485068301545noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-955273524757178757.post-10844219888923062832011-03-20T18:03:29.183+02:002011-03-20T18:03:29.183+02:00Thank you for your mail, Giorgio.
I am sorry for...Thank you for your mail, Giorgio. <br /><br />I am sorry for taking so long to respond but I have been unable to do so till now.<br /><br />Due to a rather hectic work load, I am not really able to assist students anymore. Furthermore, some journalists have contacted me using the “cover” of claiming to be students and due to these dishonest and nefarious approaches, I am afraid that I am now a lot more hesitant to help students/journalists. <br /><br />When you have completed your work, I will however gladly read it for you and comment on it.<br /><br />Rgds,<br /><br />EebenEeben Barlow's Milsec Bloghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08942119485068301545noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-955273524757178757.post-40007089651629406742011-03-14T16:35:17.274+02:002011-03-14T16:35:17.274+02:00Egypt. Bahrain. Yemen. Libya. Is it a case of the ...Egypt. Bahrain. Yemen. Libya. Is it a case of the CIA sure have been busy? There is a new wave of consciousness sweeping the arab world. I think however that they may just be booting out old despots to merely "democratically" vote in the next autocratic bunch. Power corrupts especially in areas where there are liquid assets in the ground. Where the un should be assisting is in natural disaster ravaged countries ala japan. Let them assist the civilians affected by the quake and tsunami.<br />MikeAnonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04008570891301616458noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-955273524757178757.post-82280080374505360822011-03-13T22:42:46.351+02:002011-03-13T22:42:46.351+02:00Hi Eeben,
Here in the states, we are wringing our...Hi Eeben,<br /><br />Here in the states, we are wringing our hands about Libya. Intervene? If so, how? What is the right thing to do? What is the principled thing to do? Whose interests are at stake, and in what way may we impact the situation taking into account all of these questions?<br /><br />My thought at the moment concerns one that I am seeing in your comments about the UN - mainly, that the UN can do nothing right, yet there is always the antagonistic point of "What is the UN doing?"<br /><br />Take UN our and put in US, and I don't think the difference is all that stark. Primarily, determining a course of action from a strategic position will be construed as an act of aggression and possibly war, yet not to intervene in some visible (and not so visible) ways will be seen as flaccid and lacking in objective.<br /><br />So it is a catch-22. Do nothing, and get blamed, or do something, and get blamed, and invite the wrath of those whose interests may be negatively impacted in both cases.<br /><br />What to do? This is the nature of politics and diplomacy. I have always perceived that you are not too interested in these two areas. Indeed, your posts concerning these are the least interesting, IMO.<br /><br />So my question is, as an exercise, if the current Cote d'Ivoirian or Libyan regimes were to approach you about helping them maintain power, what would your response be?<br /><br />I am guessing you would probably not answer this question, at least not directly. My ultimate point is, do you believe enough in your approach that you would have a decisive response to such an inquiry from such a media-saturated situation? And do you believe, ultimately, that the Ivorian and Libyan civil wars are as you are indicating in your latest posts and comments (a propaganda campaign on behalf of anti-African interests)?<br /><br />Thanks!<br />Jareduserdudehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09118041149975533888noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-955273524757178757.post-46476675481867627522011-03-13T19:14:28.369+02:002011-03-13T19:14:28.369+02:00Good Morning Eeben,
The evil that is the UN is tr...Good Morning Eeben,<br /><br />The evil that is the UN is truly mind-boggling when put this way. I truly believe that we have hard time fathoming how foul some people and organizations truly are - they are not even close to our moral baseline. Your experiences are invaluable bringing this out to the rest of us.<br /><br />It is interesting that some of your commentators are from WND. There are no coincidences in life, they are a media outlet that gets hammered incessantly for asking questions. The modern media outlets of blogs etc are a true wing of the ongoing conflict on this planet between good and evil <br />(doesn't that relate to Tsu?). But....I can see why you are very reluctant to give any journalist any purchase in your affairs. Your reply is, as I have found on this site, very classy.<br /><br />Thanks for the info.<br /><br />Regards,<br />JohnJohnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14052355800345172823noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-955273524757178757.post-68530909717034324292011-03-13T18:05:45.356+02:002011-03-13T18:05:45.356+02:00Dear Mr Eeben I'm an italian graduate, I'm...Dear Mr Eeben I'm an italian graduate, I'm working with Prof. Tom Farer(Josef Korbel School for Int. Studies, University of Denver) on a study about the use of PMC by UN, and I'd like to send you some questions about this topic. My goal is to demonstrate that PMC can be a better way for UN to fix danger situation like actually in Lybia. I'd be pleased if you can send my an email address where I can write to you. You can send me it at giorgiomassa1987@gmail.com<br />Kind Regards<br /><br />Giorgio MassaGiorgio Massahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05144072060441060237noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-955273524757178757.post-86805498834420168622011-03-12T11:39:34.386+02:002011-03-12T11:39:34.386+02:00Send me your email address via the blog as well as...Send me your email address via the blog as well as why you wish to establish contact, Lerato. <br /><br />Rgds,<br /><br />EebenEeben Barlow's Milsec Bloghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08942119485068301545noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-955273524757178757.post-45581439107156106182011-03-12T10:54:54.055+02:002011-03-12T10:54:54.055+02:00Hi Eben, How does one get a hold of you in private...Hi Eben, How does one get a hold of you in private? i.e email address perhaps.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15234992526391841450noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-955273524757178757.post-14667694572296338952011-03-11T08:59:15.921+02:002011-03-11T08:59:15.921+02:00The world is certainly getting chaotic, Matt.
I ...The world is certainly getting chaotic, Matt. <br /><br />I still think the Libyan forces will take back what the rebels took. It will of course be interesting to see what the Libyan government thinks about those western governments that supported them for years and suddenly turned against them when the troubles started. However, the window of opportunity for the West to intervene has started closing.<br /><br />Saudi is another critical area that will need careful watching. The shooting of protestors must surely send shockwaves across the oil markets – but then, isn’t most of this because of oil? <br /><br />But while all of this is happening, where is the UN? Why aren’t they bringing about peace in these countries? Isn’t this after all what they claim they do “best”?<br /><br />Rgds,<br /><br />EebenEeben Barlow's Milsec Bloghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08942119485068301545noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-955273524757178757.post-10826720532570976332011-03-11T00:51:59.414+02:002011-03-11T00:51:59.414+02:00Boy, Libyan forces are now bombing oil facilities....Boy, Libyan forces are now bombing oil facilities. Probably to deny controlling forces that asset. Also to create more chaos.<br /><br />http://www.nypost.com/p/news/international/khadafy_strikes_oil_qwtj7PY7izR97d0p26tkpO<br /><br />Also, it sounds like Saudi Arabia has fired on protesters during the day of rage protests. Not good, and the oil markets have reacted. Yikes.matthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04645537637248773668noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-955273524757178757.post-33864266545292509532011-03-10T13:45:01.535+02:002011-03-10T13:45:01.535+02:00I always held the belief that Egypt was the Centre...I always held the belief that Egypt was the Centre of Gravity for the MENA countries, Matt. If Egypt “went”, it would have a domino effect across the MENA. <br /><br />What happened in Libya (and Egypt) as well as others was nothing short of a massive and complete intelligence failure. The writing had been on the wall for some time but it was simply ignored. A problem of this magnitude, left for too long, can rapidly spiral out of control and be exploited by other elements, be they democratic, criminal, and religious and so forth. When “peaceful protests” become armed protests and in the process begin to attack the infrastructure, I think the entire situation changes.<br /><br />I also do not think that the talk by foreign governments to arm the rebels will do the situation any good. In fact, such operations in the past have resulted in serious repercussions in places such as Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan and so forth. How does one control these weapons that are being handed out? How can one ensure they are not used to perpetrate crimes? What guarantees are there that the weapons won’t end up in the hands of organised terrorism? <br /><br />Whereas ultimately, a political solution will be necessary – especially if the domino effect is to be stopped – I suspect that the pro-Ghadaffi forces will triumph, with or without international support. It is only once the shooting stops that talks can be held. By interfering, I think we are placing ourselves in a very difficult position as this will only encourage others to follow suit and try to overthrow governments. What would we do if we were a government in a similar situation?<br /><br />At the moment, the rebels seem to have lost some momentum and initiative. Also, they appear to have overstretched themselves and that danger is obvious. This hands the Libyan forces numerous options to use against the rebels. <br /><br />In a nutshell, the strategy to resolve problem is fairly simple. The question is do we want it to be resolved or does it suit us that it continues? <br /><br />I think the Libyan forces will begin to apply more action and firepower to suppress what is happening. They no longer have much of a choice. But this will expose them internationally as being violent and brutal towards protesters. But, let’s face it – as long as there is violence, there can be no talks. <br /><br />You make a very important point re Saudi Arabia. I think there are some very nervous people around at the moment. <br /><br />Rgds,<br /><br />EebenEeben Barlow's Milsec Bloghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08942119485068301545noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-955273524757178757.post-70511007803343612242011-03-10T10:57:55.052+02:002011-03-10T10:57:55.052+02:00Eeben, I was curious about your views on the Libya...Eeben, I was curious about your views on the Libyan uprising? From my point of view, I feel bad for the country because I feel they will be torn apart and brutalized by a civil war--but that is what war does. But I also look at objectively from a war fighting point of view.<br /><br />What I am thinking of is-- who has the advantage, what strategies will work, and how could the rebel forces compete against Gaddafi's forces? <br /><br />It is my view that what ever side gets organized first, will have the advantage. Even if one side has air power, I still default to the idea that a group that is well led and organized, with the proper strategy can do great damage. Although both sides in the conflict are learning and continuously improving their strategies, so who knows? <br /><br />My question to you is how would you advise the rebel forces if you were their leader, or a consultant to a leader? And what do you think Gaddafi will do in order to suppress this revolution and regain control? (I noticed someone has started bombing oil wells--either rebels or Gaddafi's forces as one move) <br /><br />Saudi Arabia is another area that demands attention, and who knows how that will play out? But if it does blow like Libya, the global economic impact would be stunning to say the least. Interesting times.matthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04645537637248773668noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-955273524757178757.post-58407928605299827022011-03-09T12:22:46.396+02:002011-03-09T12:22:46.396+02:00A good comment, Danie but that being the case, the...A good comment, Danie but that being the case, the UN cannot claim to be an “impartial” organisation aimed at representing everyone, least of all its claims that it is an impartial broker. <br /><br />Whereas the world is driven by interests – especially military and resources – I fear that we are watching a time bomb about to explode. This will require an even larger so-called UN peacekeeping force to intervene to keep peace where it does not exist. <br /><br />Another article (I cannot verify its accuracy) dated 6 March stated that :”Thirty containers from Chad suspected of containing weapons were seized Friday, March 4, 2011 in by the local gendarmerie (police station) in Garoua-Boulai. These were containers of weapons destined for the United Nations Operation in Côte d’Ivoire”. I have to ask why the UN needed 30 more containers of weapons?<br /><br />Choosing the UN as a tool, on a continent where they are generally derided and scorned at, may not be the smartest idea. In a sense it’s like using a screwdriver to hammer in a 6-inch nail. Something will end up being irreparably damaged.<br /><br />Rgds,<br /><br />EebenEeben Barlow's Milsec Bloghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08942119485068301545noreply@blogger.com