(This is neither a media statement nor an invitation for party
political rhetoric)
(Adapted from a talk I gave at the Rooiplaas gathering on 6
April 2019)
South Africa’s national security ought to be above petty
party politics. Unfortunately, it is not.
I believe that many people in our government, and indeed
most of our citizens, are unaware of the fact that, as a country, we are being
targeted by Fourth Generation Warfare (FGW). I wrote about this phenomenon in
my book Composite Warfare under the heading of 4th Evolution of Warfare.
I hope that I am wrong but what I see unfolding is not
merely a clash between different ideologies but a concerted effort to bring
about the collapse of the country. This will impact negatively on every citizen
of the country regardless of colour, language, and religion, and unless there
is dedicated, driven, and urgent intervention—supported by all political
parties—the momentum will merely build up over time and will become
increasingly difficult to stop.
Like any other conflict in Africa, FGW is about influence,
interests, power, and resources.
FGW is characterised by the following:
1. It is multidimensional in nature and of long term
duration. The build-up is gradual and its escalates over time
2. It includes acts of armed action, terror, sabotage,
violent protests, and violent crimes driven by different ideologies that act as
the glue holding it all together
3. Its support base is decentralised, and it (usually) enjoys
covert financial support
4. It is a direct attack on a target’s culture, past, style
of governance, and its support base, and includes attacks on—and the wanton
murder of—civilians
5. Hate-speech is a vital component of this type of warfare
as it adds to anger, division, tension, militancy, and hatred
6. It is a highly sophisticated psychological warfare and
propaganda campaign conducted through mainstream and social media manipulation,
internet/cyber warfare, internet trolls, and bots
7. All potential targets are placed under pressure ie
political, economic, governance, social, law enforcement, and military. This is
to create the perception that the government’s security forces are either unable
or unwilling to intervene, or that they cannot be trusted to secure the
populace
8. It contains threats of punishment, violence and/or
sanction against any person or party that wishes to intervene or counter its
end-goal. This will usually be driven by a small but vocal group of people who
will use a distortion of both history and facts to justify and propagate their militancy.
In this process of created anger, they will threaten to resort to an armed
uprising
9. It occurs in conflicts that are usually low intensity in
nature and includes participants from all political and ideological sides
10. Non-participants (the populace) present the security
forces with strategic, operational, and tactical dilemmas, but to the
proponents of FGW, the populace standing between them and the government/security
forces are merely collateral damage
11. It lacks an apparent and defined hierarchy
12. It appears small in size, but uses a vast and
all-inclusive network of communication, media coverage, soft power, and
financial support
13. It employs the use of tactics such as violent organised
crime, violent and destructive protests, sabotage of state infrastructure,
threats to disrupt and/or erode the health services, industry and food security,
and even terrorism and small guerrilla actions.
14. Political warfare plays a large role in FGW to breakdown
resistance.
Many of the above characteristics are already very visible
in our political landscape.
I believe we are where we are as we do not have a coherent
and realistic National Security Strategy to advise, support, strengthen, and
guide our National Strategy. If a strategy is good but cannot be implemented,
it is a waste of time and effort—and it gives the initiative to the bad guys.
Sadly, as seen from the recent report on our state intelligence
services (SSA report), the SSA became a fiefdom and partisan intelligence
organisation aimed at protecting personal interests instead of collecting
intelligence on national interests. This placed us on a very dangerous
trajectory of strategic failure. It has also eroded the pillars of state to
such an extent that they are close to collapse.
This can only be turned around by reassessing these
strategies, stopping the divisive and violent political rhetoric that is taking
place, and re-establishing the rule of law. Just these few actions will go a
long way in partly negating the political warfare/FGW campaign that is
currently unfolding. Unless we do that, we will continue sinking.
As a result of these failures, the President can be likened
to a ship’s captain that has a blind navigator. He knows where he wants to go
but won’t be able to get there as the navigator has no clue where the map is,
and he cannot see the iceberg that is rapidly approaching.